LUNAR PROGRAM COST ESTIMATE

• PREPARATION PROGRAM/DEMOS. A total of $2 billion would have been spent on advanced technology development such as aerobraking, new space suits, cryogenic propellant transfer & storage in space, planetary surface rovers, general lunar resource processing & base construction, and nuclear power.
• LUNAR VEHICLES. The Lunar Transfer & Excursion Vehicles (LTV+LEV) would have cost $9 billion in fiscal year 1989 $'s -- $12 billion at 1999 economic conditions. This cost covers the entire development effort, plus production of one vehicle. Subsequent production costs per vehicle are: $540 million per cargo Lunar Transfer Vehicle; $800M per crew LTV; $350M per cargo Lunar Excursion Vehicle, and $400M per crew LEV. The first four unmanned cargo flights and two piloted missions utilize expendable LEVs and LTVs. After this, two or three reusable vehicles will be permanently based at SS Freedom and lunar outpost. Two lunar missions per year (usually one manned plus one unmanned cargo flight) will take place in 2001-2004, rising to three missions in 2005-2011 when the LTVs and LEVs are reused and the permanent lunar crew doubles from four astronauts to eight. The annual maintenance cost of these three missions is $230 million. Shuttle-C launch costs account for an additional $700M - $1000 million (expendable LTV+LEV) per lunar landing.
• LUNAR OUTPOST AND SURFACE SYSTEMS. $22 billion for research & development plus $11.9 billion for hardware production; habitats, power systems, lunar oxygen production etc..
• LUNAR SURFACE SCIENCE: $20.5 billion, including total research & development, production and sustaining engineering.
• LUNAR PRECURSOR PROBES: $0.6 billion for remote sensing from Planetary Observer type unmanned satellites in lunar orbit.
• MARS PRECURSOR PROBES: $18.6 billion for a comprehensive unmanned Mars exploration program, including several sample return missions (launched by Titan IV-Centaur rockets), high resolution imaging from orbit, and long-range autonomous surface rovers.
• COMMUNICATIONS AND TRACKING: $9.6 billion for expanding network capability to handle lunar vehicle & base operations, including voice, data and tracking. Covers both flight & ground systems and operations.
• ADMINISTRATION & STAFF: This is the cost of hiring and retaining an additional workforce of 7500 people plus 15000 industrial support contractors plus additional offices, travel costs etc.. This number may seem high, but one has to remember that NASA had a severe shortage of personnel in 1989, e.g. all 2500 senior and middle managers then working for the agency would be egilible for retirement by 1994 and half of them were predicted to leave by 1990-91! Shuttle program administrator Richard Truly began work as the new NASA Administrator on an acting basis several months before the confirmation hearings in Congress because of higher-ranking officials' resignations. His predecessor Dale Myers + deputy Noel Hinners resigned in May 1989, leaving Truly in the difficult position of running both NASA and the Shuttle program while still unconfirmed. Numerous other top management positions were vacant. Due to a hiring freeze in the mid-1970s, there were few managers in the 30-45 age group to replace them. Equally worrying was the high resignation rate for younger managers due to low salaries compared with private industry. The 1990 Augustine Commission report also recommended hiring additional personnel as a top priority.
• SPACE STATION MODIFICATIONS: This $930-million item included two Lunar Transfer Vehicle hangars, additional robotic manipulator cranes, cryo propellant storage & pumping, a tunnel for crew transfer plus additional Orbital Maneuvering Vehicles.
• SHUTTLE-C DEVELOPMENT & LAUNCH OPERATIONS: A total of $5.3 billion would be spent Shuttle-C research & development, including production of five initial vehicles plus necessary modifications to the Shuttle launch infrastructure at Cape Canaveral. The first Shuttle-C's would be used to quickly launch the final Space Station Freedom elements by 1997. There would be three Shuttle-C launches per year in 2000-2001, rising to six per year in 2002-2011. The cost per launch would be $350 million, or $25.8 billion over 17 years for about 80 launches.
• MISSION OPERATIONS: The cost of hiring 1800 people/year as industrial contractor support to vehicle and core lunar base operations. Total cost: $3.3 billion.
• FACILITIES & TEST BEDS: $1.9 billion to support design, development and mission operations (trainers, mission control, launch procedures etc.).
• BASE BUDGET AUGMENTATION: $14 billion for a Space Station Crew Rescue Vehicle, plus $540 million/year for buying additional Space Shuttle flights to support the program. Total cost: $14 billion

(all figures are in FY 99 $B)

LUNAR PROGRAM	91	92	93	94	95	96	97	98	99	00	01	02	03	04	05	06	07	08	09	10	11		TOTAL
PREPARATION PROGRAM/DEMOS	$0.13	$0.27	$0.40	$0.54	$0.40	$0.21																	$1.96
LUNAR VEHICLES (LTV,LEV)	$0.05	$0.07	$0.13	$0.40	$0.94	$2.02	$3.76	$3.36	$1.34	$0.67	$0.89	$2.02	$2.02	$2.02	$0.23	$0.23	$0.23	$0.23	$0.23	$2.42	$0.23	=	$23.47
LUNAR OUTPOST DDT&E	$0.05	$0.07	$0.13	$0.20	$0.40	$0.94	$1.34	$2.69	$2.69	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$0.67	$0.67		=	$21.95
LUNAR OUTPOST PRODUCTION									$0.27	$0.36	$1.05	$0.98	$0.86	$0.44	$0.40	$0.98	$1.12	$1.96	$0.86	$1.01	$1.56	=	$11.85
LUNAR SURFACE SCIENCE	$0.01	$0.01	$0.07	$0.07	$0.27	$0.40	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.81	$1.07	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$1.34	$2.02	$2.02	$2.02	$2.02	=	$20.45
LUNAR PRECURSOR PROBES	$0.01	$0.07	$0.13	$0.27	$0.07	$0.07																=	$0.62
MARS PRECURSOR PROBES	$0.01	$0.03	$0.07	$0.13	$0.27	$0.54	$0.81	$1.63	$1.64	$1.27	$0.85	$1.31	$1.34	$1.34	$1.42	$1.75	$1.67	$1.41	$0.74	$0.34	$0.07	=	$18.61
SUBTOTAL:	$0.28	$0.51	$0.94	$1.61	$2.35	$4.18	$6.45	$8.21	$6.48	$4.45	$5.20	$6.99	$6.90	$6.48	$4.74	$5.64	$5.70	$6.96	$4.51	$6.45	$3.87	=	$98.91
WITH RESERVE (50%)				$2.42	$3.53	$6.27	$9.67	$12.31	$9.71	$6.68	$7.80	$10.49	$10.35	$9.72	$7.11	$8.46	$8.54	$10.44	$6.77	$9.67	$5.80	=	$148.37
COMMUNICATIONS & TRACKING	$0.01	$0.05	$0.01	$0.16	$0.24	$0.42	$0.64	$0.82	$0.64	$0.44	$0.51	$0.70	$0.69	$0.64	$0.47	$0.56	$0.56	$0.56	$0.44	$0.64	$0.39	=	$9.62
ADMINISTRATION & STAFF	$0.16	$0.30	$0.49	$0.82	$1.15	$1.48	$1.75	$2.02	$2.28	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	$2.42	=	$39.47
SPACE STATION MODIFICATIONS			$0.01	$0.03	$0.07	$0.13	$0.27	$0.27	$0.13	$0.01												=	$0.93
SHUTTLE-C DEVELOPMENT	$0.07	$0.24	$0.81	$1.17	$1.12	$0.67	$0.26	$0.81	$0.20													=	$5.33
SHUTTLE-C LAUNCH COST					$0.27	$0.40	$0.67	$0.94	$0.94	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	$1.88	=	$25.80
OPERATIONS							$0.07	$0.13	$0.19	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	$0.24	=	$3.29
FACILITIES & TEST BEDS	$0.03	$0.03	$0.11	$0.27	$0.60	$0.54	$0.28	$0.07														=	$1.92
TECHNOLOGY	$0.13	$0.13	$0.08							$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	$0.27	=	$3.57
BASE BUDGET AUGMENTATION	$0.40	$1.48	$1.88	$1.34	$1.21	$0.13	$0.00	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	$0.54	=	$13.97
SUBTOTAL:	$0.80	$2.23	$3.39	$3.79	$4.65	$3.78	$3.94	$5.59	$4.93	$5.80	$5.86	$6.05	$6.03	$5.99	$5.82	$5.91	$5.91	$5.91	$5.79	$5.99	$5.74	=	$103.90
WITH RESERVE (50%)				$5.69	$6.98	$5.66	$5.90	$8.38	$7.40	$8.71	$8.79	$9.07	$9.05	$8.99	$8.73	$8.87	$8.87	$8.87	$8.69	$8.99	$8.61	=	$155.85
T O T A L:	$1.08	$2.74	$4.33	$8.1	$10.5	$11.9	$15.6	$20.7	$17.1	$15.4	$16.6	$19.6	$19.4	$18.7	$15.8	$17.3	$17.4	$19.3	$15.5	$18.7	$14.4	=	$304.2

SOURCES:

• REPORT OF THE 90-DAY STUDY ON HUMAN EXPLORATION OF THE MOON AND MARS , NASA/Johnson Space Center [November 1989]
• PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF EXPLORATION PROGRAM COST , NASA [July 4, 1989]
• LUNAR OUTPOST, Alred, Bufkin, Kennedy, Roberts, Petro, Stecklein & Sturm , Systems Definition Branch, Advanced Programs Office, NASA/Johnson Space Center [1989]