Slide 99 of 99
Notes:
Commercially developed "manned workstation" assembling a space platform in the
early 21st century. What does the future hold for the International Space Station? The
journey from concept
definition & approval in 1984 to actual development and assembly has certainly been extremely
difficult. But it now (October 2000) seems as if the worst is finally behind. What happens
after the last Station module has been launched and added to the complex in 2006?
Pessimists feel NASA and the other space government agencies will be bogged down by the
enormous cost of operating ISS since some 70,000kg of spare parts, supplies & experiments
will have to be launched each year. The total cost to the United States alone will probably
be $4 billion annually. As a result, the critics contend, nobody will be able to afford manned
missions to the Moon or Mars as long as the Space Shuttle and ISS consume all the available
funding. However, there is also a huge opportunity for private aerospace
companies to contribute new products and services to reduce the cost to taxpayers. NASA has
indicated that ISS operations might be privatized to save money while making the Station more
accessible to its potential users -- scientists and private companies. Companies such as
Spacehab, Boeing, Alenia, Energia and Khrunichev have already indicated they are interested in
financing the construction of add-on modules as long as NASA & co. agree to sign a lease
agreement. Such schemes were first proposed in the 1980s but most of them failed due to the
Shuttle's and Space Station's political problems. Today, the business and political climate is
much more favorable and the Russian Space Agency in particular has indicated it would be interested
in collaborating with private industry. The International Space Station may thus evolve into an
embryonic "space business park" not only for microgravity and biological research, but also for
new markets such as entertainment. A international company -- MirCorp -- already has
managed to sell two flight reservations worth $40 million to Russia's old Mir station. Although
it was not enough to save Mir, television companies and wealthy individuals might visit ISS
instead. It will be a far cry from Stanley Kubrick's 2001 - A Space Odyssey when it finally
happens, but the International Space Station may nonetheless be a valuable precursor to space
hotels and other future commercial man-in-space projects.
Mars habitation module undergoing tests at I.S.S. The Space Station was originally
regarded as a staging base or assembly node for manned missions to the Moon and Mars.
The 1991 redesign removed most of the necessary features, e.g. power and attachment points
for a "spacedock" facility, and most recent NASA lunar/Mars plans have assumed the Station
only would used for crew training and as a technology testbed. However, an expanded version of
the International
Space Station may well be able to serve as a "space harbor" for reusable manned lunar
spacecraft. Earlier studies from the 1980s suggest the necessary modifications would be relatively
inexpensive. NASA planners currently believe the assembly operations in low Earth orbit would
be too complicated and that it would be better to use large expendable spacecraft and launch
vehicles specifically designed for the mission, much like the 1960s Apollo lunar project.
History suggests such programs would not survive politically, though. Commercial launch vehicles
are not large enough to launch an entire lunar or Mars spaceship, so some kind of assembly node
in space would be required to assemble the pieces. Since manned interplanetary spaceships
typically cost up to one billion dollars per copy, it might make sense to recover and re-use
them after each mission even if the direct and indirect servicing cost is high. There is no
obvious reason why the International Space Station should not be useful for this. True, the
old Freedom space station's low equatorial orbit (28.5 degree orbital inclination) would have
been slightly more suitable than the ISS 51.6-degree orbit. There will be fewer and shorter
launch opportunities ("launch windows") to and from the International Space Station, but it is
not a showstopper.
Manned lunar convoy departs from the "Power Tower" Space Station. This lunar lander &
reusable space tug configuration was proposed at the Lunar Bases and Space Activities of the
21st Century conference in 1984. The lander is carrying a moonbase module derived from
the Space Station's habitation module. NASA expected to build and launch such spaceships in
2003-2005 after completing the Space Station in 1995. The schedule turned out to be optimistic,
but a small manned lunar outpost still makes sense as a realistic and affordable "next logical
step" in manned spaceflight, perhaps by 2015. It now looks as if the International Space
Station actually might accomplish some of the commercial space-related goals outlined in the
1984 plan after all, e.g. as a market for commercial services. Hopefully, the Space Station
will also play an important role in future manned lunar and Mars exploration activities.
